THE
MENTOR

THE WEATHER

By C. F. TALMAN
Of The United States Weather Bureau

Old Probabilities

Shall tomorrow's weather be fair or foul? Blow wind—blow moistly fromthe South, for I go afishing. "Nay, good friend," exclaims the golfer,"the day must be dry and the wind in the west." The farmer moistens hisfinger and points it toward the sky. "Rain, come, quickly, for mycrops," is his prayer. But the maiden's voice is full of pleading: "Letthe sun shine tomorrow that my heart may be light on my wedding day."

And so, through the days and seasons, humanity with all its variedneeds, turns anxiously, entreatingly to Old Probabilities. And how is itpossible for him to satisfy the conflicting demand? He may, on the sameday, please the farmer in the West, the fisherman in the South, thegolfer in the northern hills, and the bride in the eastern town. But howcan he suit them all in one locality on a single day? Old Probabilitiesis willing and he loves humanity, but his powers and privileges arelimited. There are those who say that it is due to the kind endeavors ofOld Probabilities to satisfy everybody that our weather has at timesbecome so strangely mixed.

Old Probabilities is a gentle family name and came out of the affectionof the people. The name was a matter of pleasantry. It was given to theChief of the United States Weather Bureau when the department was firstestablished by Congress, and its source lay in the phrase, "It isprobable," with which all the weather predictions began. But OldProbabilities, genial prophet and lover of his fellow men, is passingaway, for the officer who organized the Weather Bureau became in timedispleased with the name and changed the form of the daily prediction soas to read, "The indications are." The phrase is formal and severe.There is naught but cold comfort in it. Our hearts turn back fondly toOld Probabilities and his friendly assurance: "It is probable thattomorrow will be fair."